What O'Connell Doesn't Know

The Mayor Doesn’t Understand His Own Transit Referendum, So Why Should You Vote For It?

The council members have taken their bus selfies, the nonprofits have rolled out their PR campaigns, and the mayor has chosen “sidewalks and green lights” as the lipstick for his porker of a transit initiative to expand the city’s WeGo network, but, to borrow a line from Taylor Swift, band-aids don't fix bullet holes. Following the robust East Bank Development deal and preceding an inevitable property tax increase, Nashvillians are being asked once again to fork over their hard-earned dollars to fund a half-baked plan. 

Come November, voters will have to decide whether a bus network expansion is worth a half-cent sales tax increase. According to the approved ballot language, the tax surcharge will end “once all debt issued for the transit improvement program has been paid” and Metro Council “determines by resolution that the revenues from the tax surcharges are no longer needed for operation of the program.”

Since its introduction, the mayor’s office hasn’t been forthcoming when it comes to revealing the exact “debt” this tax would cover. On the ballot, Nashvillians will see about $3.1 billion in construction costs and $111 million in recurring maintenance costs. Meanwhile, Metro’s Independent Accountant’s Report estimates the total construction cost to be over $6.9 billion in “future dollars,” which includes an estimated $5.26 billion in sales tax and revenue bonds over the next fifteen years.

I asked Mayor O’Connell what exact debt the sales tax will pay for during his media roundtable last Friday: “We know that transit doesn't necessarily ever get out of debt,” I said. The mayor responded in kind and, in front of the press, agreed that voters deserve clarification. “I’ll make sure we get a complete answer,” he said, “because we all need one, too.” 

To call this disconcerting is an understatement. After asking this question a total of five times over the last month, it’s clear the mayor isn’t just unable to tell constituents what they’re paying for, he’s also incapable of identifying when, exactly, the sales tax will sunset.“Our program anticipates fifteen years of capital projects,” he told us almost six weeks ago on June 28th. “But I think it’s twenty-five years of sales tax because there’s an expectation of an additional ten where most of it is then in [operational] independence.” To this day, this has remained the clearest answer we received from his office.

Interestingly enough, within the same conversation, the mayor made us aware of a significant section of the Tennessee Code. "Once the funding mechanism is initiated, I think there is a term,” he told us, “and I don't know then if it requires that you go back to either another referendum, or if it's continued potentially by resolution.” A look at the Tennessee Code’s section on local option transit surcharges reveals that if a condition to end a tax is not included in the legislative language, a “surcharge is repealed in the same manner as adopted.” In other words, ending the surcharge may take not only a resolution, but also another referendum.

Since then, The Pamphleteer has reached out to both TDOT and the Tennessee Comptroller’s office, both of whom have redirected us back to Metro Legal for clarification on the matter. 

Last week, after trying to coax an answer out of O’Connell during his roundtable, the mayor assured me he would get an answer from Metro Legal Director Wally Dietz. I followed up with O’Connell’s Deputy Communications Director, Alex Apple, and received the following email. “Per the Metro Dept. of Law,” it read, “and under the authority of the IMPROVE Act, the surcharge will remain in effect until such time as all debts issued under the program are paid and the Metro Council acts by resolution to terminate the surcharge.” 

Maybe by October, the mayor’s administration will be able to explain by what mechanism Metro will be able to rescind the surcharge, or whether this dedicated funding plan has the potential to turn into a forever sales tax. But for now, rather than having the answers needed to make an informed decision, O’Connell seems to be indicating that all Nashvillians need to do is choose the “right” side of history: “On November 5th, voters will be able to choose whether we continue to do nothing, or build a future with more green lights, more sidewalks, better transit, and safer streets.” MEGAN PODSIEDLIK

📉 Nashville's Growth Problems Middle Tennessee has done a great job of attracting families. From 2020 to 2022, Tennessee was one of only five states in which the population of children under the age of 4 increased. The others were Idaho, North Carolina, South Carolina, and New Hampshire.  A quick glance at the data reveals most of this growth occurred in Middle Tennessee versus Nashville proper, where the child population fell precipitously, exhibiting the increasingly common donut effect typifying urban areas.

It’s become something of a broken refrain for us to point to the fact that Nashville-proper has, contrary to popular perception, actually lost people since 2020. Most of the people leaving the city are domestic migrants (i.e. US citizens  moving to surrounding counties or other states) and most of the people arriving are first-generation immigrants. In truth, the only reason the city has remained above water over the past five years is due entirely to international migration. 

This trend bears out in the Metro Nashville Public School system, where the population of “multilingual learners” constituted a third of all MNPS students in the 2023-2024 school year as Hispanic and Latino students will soon become the largest ethnic group in the public school system, surpassing blacks and bringing with them the additional cost of ESL instruction.

Not only do people across the political spectrum know this is a problem,  Mayor O’Connell tapped into this anxiety himself with his campaign slogan “I Want You To Stay.” Relatedly, Derek Thompson wrote yesterday in The Atlantic about the increasingly anti-family turn that US Metros have taken. “From 2020 to 2023, the number of these young kids declined by nearly 20 percent in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx,” he writes. “They also fell by double-digit percentage points in the counties making up most or all of Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and St. Louis.” Thompson emphasizes the unaffordability of housing, something that more restrictive immigration would help alleviate in Nashville’s case. 

Connor O’Brien, a policy analyst at the Economic Innovation Group, told Thompson in the article, “When the population of young kids in a city falls 10 or 20 percent in just a few years, that’s a potential political earthquake. Almost overnight, there are fewer parents around to fight for better schools, local playgrounds, or all the other mundane amenities families care about.”

Nashville has done nothing to distinguish itself from other burgeoning cities that are hollowing out, repelling families by failing to shore up the schools, let alone protect their residents from mundane criminality. The O’Connell administration has done nothing to indicate it is willing to do the hard things it takes to turn the city around, instead falling back on the rote acceptance that “transit is the way to prosperity” as the schools languish and residents lose trust in city leadership’s ability to maintain basic law and order. DAVIS HUNT

💸 Look, Free Money! An oft-forgotten aspect of the Biden administration’s so-called Inflation Reduction Act was the allocation of $2.2 billion to a Discrimination Financial Assistance Program through the USDA to award grants to farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners who reported discrimination in farm lending prior to 2021. Applications opened on July 7th, 2023, closed January 17th, 2024, and as of July 30th of this year, all payments have been issued. Though the language specifying who qualified for the program included discrimination claims on the basis of criteria other than race, reporting on the program from media outlets emphasizes the racial makeup of the recipients.

In August 2021, soon after the IRA was signed into law by Biden, AP published a story headlined ‘Black US farmers awaiting billions in promised debt relief’. The Tennessee Lookout’s story on the successful disbursement of funds describes the grant recipients in Tennessee as 1,500 black and minority farmers. Setting aside for a moment the question of how offering free money to people helps reduce inflation, it typifies the kind of “reparation-like” programs smuggled into existence during the easy money Covid period. DAVIS HUNT

📰 Quick Headlines The Tennessee Star reports that the FBI is set to open a field office in Nashville. The agency currently has offices in Memphis and Knoxville, but will make Nashville the primary field office once it settles on a location. 

According to Axios Nashville, Metro is opening up the bidding process for an operator of Ascend Amphitheater. It’s been run by Live Nation since its inception. AEG, Ryman Hospitality, the Madison Square Garden Entertainment and tvg hospitality are likely bidders.

Steven Hale at the Nashville Banner broke the news last week that longstanding director of the Metro Nashville Police Department’s Office of Professional Accountability, Kathy Morante, had been replaced following allegations from a former officer of various conduct violations.

DEVELOPMENT

• Arts-inspired Dickerson Pike development advances after 'massive delay' (NBJ)
• The Loading Dock eyes Buchanan St.; Kyuramen preps Nashville location (NBJ)
• Mel's Drive-In to open in Downtown Nashville (NBJ)
• Berry Hill sees latest commercial property listing (Post)
• Giarratana eyes 17-story tower on Rock Block (Post)
• Acai bowl eatery set for Vanderbilt area (Post)

✹ THIS WEEK IN STREAMING (August 6th)

IF (Paramount+) Those needing a post-Deadpool Ryan Reynolds fix can now experience his other big summer hit on America’s most endangered streaming service. Reynolds stars as the founder of an agency that rehomes imaginary friends stuck in limbo when kids outgrow them. But when he realizes the kid next door can see his clients too, they form a partnership that brings the two worlds together. John Krasinski’s direction melds the sweet and raw side of coming of age while an all-star cast that includes Matt Damon, Sam Rockwell, Emily Blunt, Awkwafina, and Steve Carell give the whole affair a sense of whimsy as appealing to kids as adults.

Expats (Prime) The greatest Emmy snub of 2024 was the total disregard of Lulu Wang’s (The Farewell) knockout melodrama about a group of ritzy cosmopolitans living their worst lives in Hong Kong. As a mother dealing with the disappearance of her young son, Nicole Kidman anchors the whole affair with another on-point performance while Wang uses the soapy atmosphere to navigate the identity of a global city under perpetual colonization. Whip smart and more than worth a watch.

Silent Night (Starz/Hulu/Prime) Hallmark and Hobby Lobby are officially bringing Christmas cheer, so may as well get a head start on the festivities with a should-be classic that also marks the return of Hong Kong action pioneer John Woo after a 20-year Hollywood hiatus. This largely dialogue-free tale of a vigilante father (Joel Kinnaman) in a bordertown who loses his son and voice in the crossfire of a gang war on Christmas Eve deftly balances instantly iconic fight sequences with savvy immigration commentary. Though it left little footprint during its initial theatrical run last winter, it’s the best seasonally appropriate movie of its kind since Mel Gibson’s Fatman.

THINGS TO DO

View our calendar for the week here and our weekly film rundown here.

📅 Visit our On The Radar list to find upcoming events around Nashville.

🎧 On Spotify: Pamphleteer's Picks, a playlist of our favorite bands in town this week.

👨🏻‍🌾 Check out our Nashville farmer's market guide and yearly festival guide.

TONIGHT

🎸 The Folk Implosion @ Riverside Revival, 7p, $33+, Info

🎸 Jackie West @ DRKMTTR, 8p, $12, Info

🎸 Mark Thornton and The Sidekicks @ Station Inn, 8p, $20, Info

🎸 Honky Tonk Tuesday @ [VENUE CHANGE!] Eastside Bowl, 8p, $10, Info‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌
+ two-step lessons @ 7p, The Cowpokes @ 8p

🎺 Todd Day Wait @ The Underdog, 11:30p, Free, Info‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌

📰 Check out the full newsletter archive here.