Crunching The Numbers In D7

We’re only two days into early voting, and it’s certainly too soon to tell which way the wind is blowing in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. That said, the numbers do tell a bit of the story, and it seems the battle between Republican nominee Matt Van Epps and Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn could be a close one.

For starters, 36,862 people voted in the Republican primary, while 31,024 people voted in the Democratic primary. Though the 5,838 vote gap could give Van Epps a bit of leeway in the General Election, the party primary turnout numbers were significantly close compared to how things normally look in the reliably Republican district during regular election cycles.

The lack of turnout is also a hurdle for Van Epps, who will have to try and secure votes from Republicans who didn’t support him during his primary race. Unlike the Democrats, the primary showdown on the right side of the ticket was a slugfest. Uniting the party to beat Behn may prove a challenge for Republicans, and the numbers aren’t favorable.

Van Epps' closest Republican competitor was state Representative Jody Barrett, who received over 9,000 votes. Barrett also happened to be the most viciously attacked candidate during the primaries. Complacency from even a fraction of Barrett’s supporters could be detrimental to Van Epps' bottom line and turn the tide in Behn’s favor.

It’s also possible for Behn to close the gap by ginning up some general election turnout from Democrats who didn’t show up for the primary, and Davidson County is her best bet. Behn secured most of her primary support in Nashville, landing 3,919 of the 13,805 Democratic votes cast in the heavily blue area. On the other side of the ticket, only 2,608 Republican votes were cast in Davidson during the primaries.

There happens to be a whopping 117,687 total regularly active voters in the portion of Nashville that falls within District 7. If Behn’s campaign inspires a larger turnout in Davidson during the General Election compared to the primaries, it could be enough to catch Van Epps.

As of now, it does seem possible. District seven is only two days into early voting, but it's worth noting that two and a half times the amount of voters have already shown up to the polls in Davidson County compared to the first two days of early voting in the primary.

That said, it seems like anything goes in D7’s special election showdown. Low voter turnout, the upcoming holiday, the government reopening, and the campaigns themselves are sure to make for an unpredictable race.