The Next Governor's First Job

Opinion: Clark Hildabrand on the 2020 Census undercount and what's at stake in 2030

From Clark Hildabrand

With the state’s attention in 2020 understandably focused on the pandemic, census response efforts fell by the wayside. Although the census captured some of the state’s population growth over the previous decade, the Census Bureau subsequently acknowledged that it undercounted Tennessee’s population by about 4.78%, a failure only exceeded by the 5.04% undercount next door in Arkansas. In other words, the census likely failed to count over 300,000 Tennesseans. 

This statistical anomaly had a much bigger impact than merely postponing the announcement that Tennessee’s population had exceeded 7 million. Thanks to the undercount, Tennessee lost out on millions, if not billions, of dollars in federal funding that could help the state adjust to its expanded population.

If the undercount recurs in 2030, the difference might even be enough to cost Tennessee a tenth congressional seat. The 2030 census might seem a long way away, but the next Governor will need to hit the ground running on this issue to best protect the interests of Tennessee taxpayers.

Before discussing solutions, consider what is at stake. While the state’s leaders have admirably worked to lessen reliance on federal funding, Tennessee as a whole still receives roughly $100 billion in federal funding each year. Over 300 federal programs decide how much money to divvy up among states based on census data. States with larger populations tend to get larger portions of the pie.

✹ DOES NASHVILLE WANT YOU TO STAY?

The Zoning Phantom Leadeth the Taxman Zoning, land use, and property tax disputes have animated political discussions in Nashville since Mayor Freddie O'Connell first took office in September 2023.

​Through his Substack, Built to Think, and organization, Save Our Nashville Neighborhoods, Chris Remke has emerged as the city’s most potent critic of the Metro agenda. He's effectively drawn attention to everything from Nashville’s inflated growth projections to the smoke-and-mirrors assurances given to homeowners about how upzoning would affect them, and most recently, the betrayal of local businesses now saddled with unwieldy tax bills.

​Join us Thursday evening, March 26th, for a wide-ranging discussion on what Metro is trying to achieve and where they've gone wrong.

​This event is for the benefit of The Pamphleteer, Nashville, and priced with that in mind. Bard-level subscribers receive free admittance.

📜 Ogles Proposes Change to Immigration Policy On Friday, Congressman Andy Ogles announced that he is preparing the ASSIMILATION Act, which would repeal the Hart-Celler Immigration Act and "ends the H1-B visa scam, ends chain migration, and creates a whole new character-based system that would make America look like America again.”

Before Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Hart-Cellar Act in 1965, America's immigration policy favored immigrants from Northern and Western Europe and placed restrictions on others. Since then, the policy change replaced the quotas with a system prioritizing family reunification, skilled workers, and refugees, which significantly diversified immigration to the United States.

Ogles’ announcement comes on the heels of criticism from Democrats who claim the Tennessee congressman has been espousing anti-Muslim sentiments. Last Thursday, U.S. Representative Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.) introduced a resolution to censure Ogles for a social media post.

✹ METRO COUNCIL WATCH

Who bankrolls your councilmember? We analyzed every donation to every council member to show you whether they're funded by their constituents or someone else. Higher grades go to those who raise more money locally. (Take a Look)

HEADLINES

• 🧊 DOJ says Nashville journalist detained by ICE misrepresented facts about her arrest. Colombian journalist Estefany Rodriguez Flores alleged that she was taken into custody without a warrant. Federal attorneys said the claim is untrue: Rodriguez Flores “was arrested pursuant to a valid arrest warrant, lawfully detained, and she has clearly misrepresented the facts in her original petition.” (TN Star)
• 🦆 Bill expanding protections for two TN Rivers moves forward. The House is moving forward on legislation already passed by the Senate that would expand “scenic river” protections to Buffalo River and most of the Duck River. The change would extend conservation oversight and public-outreach requirements to more waterways while largely keeping existing land uses and private property rights unchanged. (Lookout)

DEVELOPMENT

• Former Starwood Amphitheater site lists residential portion for sale (NBJ)
• Country star Chris Young eyes Nashville bar on Demonbreun (NBJ)
• Former Patterson House building prepped for new bar in Midtown (NBJ)
• Harding House Brewing to open in L&L Market (Post)

THINGS TO DO

View our calendar for the week here.

📅 Visit our On The Radar list to find upcoming events around Nashville.

🎧 On Spotify: Pamphleteer's Picks, a playlist of our favorite bands in town this week.

👨🏻‍🌾 Check out our Nashville farmer's market guide.

TONIGHT

🎸 DD Island, Carriers & Ryan Levine @ The Basement, 9p, $19.78, Info

🎸 oliverance @ The East Room, 8p, $14.39, Info

🪕 Bluegrass Monday with Kyle Tuttle @ Dee's Lounge, 6p, $10, Info

🪕 Val Storey, Carl Jackson, Larry Cordle & New Monday @ Station Inn, 8p, $20, Info

💀 Grateful Monday @ Acme Feed & Seed, 7p, Free, Info

🕺 Motown Monday @ The 5 Spot, 9p, $5, Info

📰 Check out the full newsletter archive here.

Today's newsletter is brought to you by Davis Hunt, Megan Podsiedlik, and Camelia Brennan.