Why Nashville's crime rate has fallen

Back in February, MNPD began Operation 72, an initiative dedicated to investigating car thefts in Nashville. Since its inception, every police precinct has enlisted detectives from their respective field intelligence teams to focus on “recovering stolen vehicles, identifying thieves, and advancing any other criminal investigations that may be associated with the stolen vehicles,” according to MNPD Public Affairs Director Don Aaron.

The director attributed the downward trend of Nashville’s crime rate to this precision policing method, noting that since February, it has resulted “in the recovery of 238 stolen or carjacked vehicles and 101 firearms.” Additionally, he says, “421 arrests have been made on more than 800 felony charges and nearly 700 misdemeanor offenses.” 

Indeed, there were 259 fewer cars stolen between March and May this year compared to the same timeframe last year; similarly, the amount of guns stolen from vehicles has fallen by 35 percent. MNPD doesn't just anticipate a significant decrease in auto theft throughout the rest of the year, it expects to see a measured decrease in other violent crimes as well. “We know that a person who steals a car is oftentimes going to be involved in other criminal acts— from perhaps auto burglaries, to the theft of other vehicles, to even robberies,” explained Director Aaron. This correlation is why the police chose to hone in on car break-ins and thefts. “Precision policing essentially means that you're working to identify and hold accountable those persons in the community who are committing acts of violence,” said Aaron, “or who, in other ways, are disrupting positive quality of life.” 

MNPD knows what works, and so does Mayor O’Connell. “You may know the Metro Nashville Police Department has started a special focus on car theft,” he said during last Friday’s roundtable. “And actually, they're seeing—since that initiative started in February—downward pressure again on the car theft process.”

According to Manhattan Institute fellow Charles Fain Lehman, there’s a distinct difference between the approaches that help mitigate property crime versus those that reduce violent crime. “Violent crime is not really about deprivation, per se,” Lehman explained. “It's about…being stuck in these networks of norms. You get these very tight networks…where there's low enough social control, you have just enough young impulsive men, and you have just enough access to guns.” 

Unfortunately, whenever a police department in a major city implements an effective strategy to target criminal behavior, it’s only a matter of time before the efficacy of that strategy is called into question. “When you look at Chicago, they ran something called the Strategic Subject List, where they identified the…most prolific offenders in the city and the PD was tracking them,” said Lehman.  “And, unsurprisingly, the overwhelming majority of the guys on there were young black men. And that was not popular with the ACLU, and the agency all got shut down.”

Lehman’s example isn’t far off from what has played out in Memphis over the last few years. In 2023, the Memphis City Council passed a bill restricting the police’s ability to make low-level traffic stops. The council felt justified in making the change following the death of Tyre Nichols, but local authorities have argued that routine traffic stops are crucial in keeping communities safe. Though activists scoured police statistics for proof that “pretextual” stops disproportionately target black drivers, the DOJ hasn’t found evidence showing “patterns of discriminatory police work” in the Memphis Police Department. The governor has since signed a law nullifying the Memphis Council’s “Driving Equality Act” by prohibiting local governments from limiting law enforcement’s routine traffic stops. 

“We know that police presence is not only something that matters from a community's perception perspective,” said O’Connell, “but it really does have an impact on crime rates.” Despite his emphasis on using community-based programs to improve high-crime areas, most of these programs have yet to come online. The initiative O’Connell named as having the most significant impact on Davidson County was the Partners In Care Program, which sends a clinical mental health provider to accompany police officers on certain law enforcement calls.

Of course, any cop could tell you there’s an easy way to strengthen relationships between communities and law enforcement without adding any new, multi-million dollar non-profit initiatives: assigning officers to a regular beat. According to one MNPD officer, patrol and shift assignments were once routine and efficient, but became scattered and disengaging after Summer 2020. Now, instead of encouraging proactive and preventative policing by placing officers in familiar settings, the department moves them all around the city, fracturing the foundational trust they were once able to establish in neighborhoods. “It's all been scaled back and now they're doing community-related [initiatives, like] dealing with the homeless,” said the officer in an interview with the Pamphleteer in 2022. 

We’ve seen what works. We know what works. But, is there a will to stay focused on what's effective in the face of political pushback?

MEGAN PODSIEDLIK

💰 Budget Priorities As budget discussions in the city pick up speed, there are two items that stick out to us regarding schools.

 MNPD has requested $2.58 million to fill 18 positions on its Rapid School Safety Team. Created in the aftermath of the Covenant tragedy, the RSST is currently staffed by officers pulled from other assignments. The department believes the additional money will allow them to fund a full-time dedicated RSST while also filling other vacant positions. Last week, Chief Drake told the council that MNPD was short 153 officers— though 61 have enrolledy in the police academy, which will bring that number under 100.

Meanwhile, MNPS faces a fiscal cliff as ESSER funding doled out during Covid dries up in June. The school system accepted $66 million in federal grant funding, which it is seeking to bridge, and has requested an additional $11.8 million from the city. According to a Nashville Scene report, “While the district used much of the ESSER funds for one-time costs such as building repairs, it also used them to hire more school nurses and counselors and to develop a larger infrastructure to support social and emotional learning among students.” DAVIS HUNT

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📊 Vandy Poll Insights Yesterday, we made quick mention of the recent Vanderbilt snapshot poll. Here are a few more stats that caught our eye.

The most popular answer to what should be Tennessee government’s top priority was “economy and jobs, excluding inflation” (16 percent). This was followed by education (14 percent), inflation (13 percent), immigration (12 percent), infrastructure (11 percent), and gun control (10 percent). 

As for school vouchers, the electorate is still split. While 45 percent said they support tax-funded vouchers, 46 percent said they’re opposed. Likewise, 49 percent said they would likely use a voucher, while 50 percent said it’s unlikely. Interestingly, the support and opposition to a voucher system is evenly dispersed across rural, suburban, and urban communities. 

Unsurprisingly, almost everyone thinks democracy is under attack. Of those polled, 63 percent agreed that American democracy is under attack, 29 percent said that it’s being tested but isn’t “under attack,” and a measly 5 percent don’t think American democracy is in danger. Of those who think democracy is indeed under attack, the total was made up by 57 percent of the “non-MAGA” Republicans who weighed in, 78 percent of the“MAGA” Republicans, 62 percent of the Democrats, and 57 percent of the Independants. MEGAN PODSIEDLIK

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🍔 Fast and Free Facts Lebanon is the country’s 12th fastest growing city, according to recent data from the Census Bureau. From July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023, the city grew by 8.9 percent. “Thirteen of the fifteen fastest-growing cities were in the South, with eight in Texas alone,” read a Census Bureau news release. 

Surprising none but the most cynical among us, the state’s Court of Appeals ruled that the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency’s practice of installing cameras on private property to surveil for violations of hunting, fishing and wildlife laws without a warrant was unconstitutional. The Tennessee Lookout’s Anita Wadhwani did some great reporting on this.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goddell was in town Tuesday for the signing of the Smart Heart Act at Pearl-Cohn. He didn’t give any word on whether or not Nashville would get a Super Bowl, saying that the main Nashville focus for him right now is getting the new stadium built (speaking of, here’s a cool time lapse of what the construction will look like).

And, finally, Morgan Wallen’s bar opens this weekend. After the sign debacle, I fully expect what was going to be a hectic opening weekend even more chaotic. Be warned. DAVIS HUNT

DEVELOPMENT

• Updates set for Wedgewood-Houston building housing Jackalope (Post)
• Cocktail bar, Coral Club, to open on east side (Post)
• West Trinity Lane land listed for sale (Post)

✹ THIS WEEK IN STREAMING

A Man in Full (Netflix) The greatest sign that American culture still has a future is that a streaming giant like Netflix would fund a mega budget adaptation of a Tom Wolfe book in 2024. Sure, they probably thought adapting his 1998 novel about a real estate mogul (Jeff Daniels) defending his empire from all sides as his enemies orchestrate a fall from grace would have some resonance in Trump’s mugshot era. But, as is true of anything written by the man in the white suit, it’s not quite the resonance they intended. As the polarized reviews indicate, the six-part miniseries is the type of feather-ruffling mainstream prestige work we rarely get anymore

The Iron Claw (Max) This gritty retelling of the rise and tragic fall of the Von Erich wrestling dynasty finally makes its way to streaming. Zac Efron approaches Day Lewis levels of artistry as the Texas clan’s elder brother torn between the quest for stardom his father drilled into him and the well-being of his kid brothers forced to follow in the old man’s footsteps. Sean Durkin has long been American indie film’s most unassuming talent. As we wrote upon the film’s theatrical release, he’s also a master of deplorable mythology.  

Late Night with the Devil (AMC+) This instant classic of found-footage horror made box office waves this spring for its 70s talk show sheen and star-making turn from veteran character actor David Dastmalchian. Now, the story of a flailing Hollywood talk show host whose disastrous attempts to escape the shadow of Carson with a live Halloween special featuring a young girl who escaped a satanic cult is ready for home viewing. One of the rare times a movie may be better experienced on your living room television.

THINGS TO DO

View our calendar for the week here and our weekly film rundown here.

📅 Visit our On The Radar list to find upcoming events around Nashville.

🎧 On Spotify: Pamphleteer's Picks, a playlist of our favorite bands in town this week.

👨🏻‍🌾 Check out our Nashville farmer's market guide and yearly festival guide.

TONIGHT

🎸 Real Estate @ The Basement East, 7p, $32.87, Info
+ dream pop

🪕 All-Star Bluegrass Night @ Station Inn, 9p, $20, Info
+ feat. Gena Britt, Stephen Burwell, John Meador, Johnathan Dillon, and Tyler Griffith

🍀 Live Irish Music @ McNamara’s Irish Pub, 6p, Free, Info

🎸 Kelly’s Heroes @ Robert’s Western World, 6:30p, Free, Info

🎸 Open Mic @ Fox & Locke, 6:30p, Free, Info
+ vet community here