O'Connell's Fall from Grace
🗣 Pamphleteer speaker event tonight! · Freddie drops in the polls · Nashville growth driven by immigration · CM Delishia Porterfield recruits progressives · Much more!
Good afternoon, everyone. Vanderbilt poll shows dip in Mayor O'Connell's approval rating... Nashville growth still driven by immigration... CM Delishia Porterfield plans to recruit progressives to break up TN GOP stronghold... And much more!
The Battle for Nashville's Soul Join us tonight, March 26th, for a discussion with developer and advocate Chris Remke as we dig into the city's actions around zoning and property taxes. (Buy Ticket)
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Vanderbilt poll numbers are in, and Mayor O’Connell’s approval rating has taken a hit.
From Megan Podsiedlik
Fresh off the campaign trail in 2024, O’Connell experienced post-election popularity, landing a 71 percent approval rating. A year later, it dipped to 67 percent. However, the most recent poll released this month shows his approval rating declined significantly, settling at 54 percent.
The prominent drop in support for the mayor is accompanied by a drop in approval for the Metro Council. Vanderbilt Poll Co-director Joshua Clinton also noted that for the first time since Vandy started conducting the poll in 2011, more Nashvillians think the city's on the wrong track compared to the right track .
Why? Vanderbilt Poll Co-director John Geer cautioned against overinterpreting the effects of the ice storm.
“The ice storm certainly drove down the mayor's approval; certainly moved the right track/wrong track in the wrong direction,” said Geer. “But you don't want to attribute all of this change to the ice storm, because there are lots of things going on in politics.”
While Geer rattled off political polarization, international instability, and a sputtering economy as additional factors contributing to the dip in approval ratings among city leaders, here are a few local factors that have caused division among Mayor O’Connell’s coalition of progressives and business leaders over the last two years.
Progressive coalition Initially energized by the mayor’s pro-transit Choose How You Move initiative, its luster has faded for Nashville progressives. Greenway construction has stalled to about one mile per year, only 2.6 miles of bikeways were built in 2025 compared to 21.4 miles in 2024, and new sidewalk construction only increased from 3.8 miles in 2024 to 5.9 in 2025.
Those who rallied behind CHYM also feel disenfranchised by the Boring Company’s Music City Loop—a privately funded underground transit initiative connecting the airport to downtown. While ginning up support to get CHYM on the ballot in 2024, the mayor’s administration failed to disclose that the Boring Company was already reaching out to O'Connells' office regarding the subterranean project.
The issue remains a pebble in Freddie’s shoe: During last month’s special-called Transportation and Infrastructure Committee meeting, Councilmember Tasha Ellis (District 29) asked the Boring Company about its communications with the mayor’s administration. TBC’s VP of Business Development, Jim Fitzgerald, disclosed that they met with the mayor’s former Chief Development Officer Bob Mendes in person to talk about the Music City Loop project before O’Connell’s transit initiative was put on the ballot.
Along the way, O’Connell has also disappointed progressives by supporting the failed FUSUS contract that would have created a technology-based law enforcement surveillance network in Nashville (cue this colorful poem recited during a council meeting in December) and with his muted response to ICE operations in the city.
Business coalition O’Connell successfully championed a property tax increase during this year’s budget season. Despite early warnings from Davidson County business owners, the mayor pushed ahead with the hike, which was intensified by recent property reappraisals. The financial pressure on Nashville’s business sector has garnered significant backlash.
Nashvillians In general, locals have been impacted by a few significant issues during this administration that could be contributing to O’Connell’s lower approval rating. Before the mayor’s Winter Storm Response Commission even began hemming and hawing over the city’s bungled response to this year’s ice storm, anxious Nashvillians flooded MNPD community meetings as car break-ins and violent crime stoked widespread unease.
Given that the Vanderbilt poll revealed public education as the top priority issue among participants, the mayor’s move to historically increase Metro Nashville Public Schools’ budget at the expense of taxpayers while Nashvillians remain unsatisfied with the county’s student literacy crisis could be leaving a lasting impression.
The unfavorable climate ginned up by ongoing zoning wars—which could be contributing to the council’s dip in approval—may also be spilling over to the mayor’s office.
✹ DOES NASHVILLE WANT YOU TO STAY?
The Zoning Phantom Leadeth the Taxman Zoning, land use, and property tax disputes have animated political discussions in Nashville since Mayor Freddie O'Connell first took office in September 2023.
Through his Substack, Built to Think, and organization, Save Our Nashville Neighborhoods, Chris Remke has emerged as the city’s most potent critic of the Metro agenda. He's effectively drawn attention to everything from Nashville’s inflated growth projections to the smoke-and-mirrors assurances given to homeowners about how upzoning would affect them, and most recently, the betrayal of local businesses now saddled with unwieldy tax bills.
Join us this evening, March 26th, for a wide-ranging discussion on what Metro is trying to achieve and where they've gone wrong.
This event is for the benefit of The Pamphleteer, Nashville, and priced with that in mind. Bard-level subscribers receive free admittance.
Nashville Growth Still Driven By Immigration
From Davis Hunt
The US Census Bureau released new data last night. The headline grabber is that population growth slowed due to the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement efforts. In short, fewer immigrants are coming into the country.
The decline hit urban areas the hardest. Every single Metro area in the country saw net immigration fall. In most areas, it fell over 50 percent. In Nashville, it fell by 33 percent, but the lion’s share of the city’s growth continues to come from immigrants.
Nashville gained an additional 9,281 residents between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025 driven entirely by births and immigration to the city. Immigrants accounted for 63 percent of that growth. The year prior, they accounted for 84 percent of the city's growth.
The pattern of American citizens leaving Davidson County and immigrants moving in is still the best way to frame the city’s growth. Nashville lost 925 citizens last year and 2,741 the year before, a pattern that’s held for over ten years now.
Nashville inherits the bulk of the state’s immigrants. In total 17,990 people moved into the state from another country, 33 percent of whom moved to Davidson County and 20 percent of whom moved to another county in the Nashville Metropolitan Statistical Area which includes surrounding counties.
As American citizens continued to leave the city proper, 16,967 moved into the MSA. Like everywhere else, immigration to the MSA fell compared to last year, but domestic migration actually increased by 15 percent showing the enduring appeal of the ring counties.
HEADLINES
- 🏛 Senate Judiciary Committee wipes out 10 controversial bills. Key bills included an exemption for private citizens and organizations from recognizing same-sex marriages; the “Banning Bostock Act”; easing penalties for carrying a weapon onto posted property; and allowing permit holders to carry any firearms, not just handguns. (State Affairs)
- 💰 Top Republicans push creation of a new state board to oversee Nashville tourism tax revenues. The new legislation unveiled Wednesday would create a joint capital tourism board to oversee $30 million in excess revenue generated by the development zone and the $300 million in surplus funds held by the Nashville Convention Center Authority. (Lookout)
- 🗳 Nashville Councilmember Delishia Porterfield forms new progressive recruitment program. The Pipeline Fund, an offshoot of national progressive umbrella group Sixteen Thirty Fund, tapped Metro Councilmember Delishia Porterfield to recruit and train progressive candidates for local and state office. Under the Tennessee group, LEAD Tennessee, Pipeline hopes to challenge the Republican supermajority in the state legislature. (Banner)
✹ METRO COUNCIL WATCH
Who bankrolls your councilmember? We analyzed every donation to every council member to show you whether they're funded by their constituents or someone else. Higher grades go to those who raise more money locally. (Take a Look)
DEVELOPMENT
- Bell Construction Starts Work on Humphreys County, TN Law Enforcement Center (Now Next)
- Metro Planning unveils urban core initiative (Post)
- Ex-law firm building downtown listed for $4.6M (Post)
- Owner of downtown building facing Metro fines (Post)
- Wedgewood-Houston set for Turkish cuisine restaurant (Post)
THINGS TO DO
View our calendar for the week here.
📅 Visit our On The Radar list to find upcoming events around Nashville.
🎧 On Spotify: Pamphleteer's Picks, a playlist of our favorite bands in town this week.
👨🏻🌾 Check out our Nashville farmer's market guide.
TONIGHT
🎸 Robert Plant @ Ryman Auditorium, 7p, $264, Info
🎸 Madison Cunningham @ The Blue Room, 7p, $54.26, Info
🪕 Tin Pan South @ Multiple Venues, Info
🎸 Kelley’s Heroes @ Robert’s Western World, 6:30p, Free, Info
🎸 Open Mic @ Fox & Locke, 6:30p, Free, Info
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Finish Repealing Tennessee’s CON LawsToday's newsletter is brought to you by Davis Hunt, Megan Podsiedlik, and Camelia Brennan.