Opinion: Tennessee Got Stiffed on the Census. Nobody's Talking About It.

With the state’s attention in 2020 understandably focused on the pandemic, census response efforts fell by the wayside. Although the census captured some of the state’s population growth over the previous decade, the Census Bureau subsequently acknowledged that it undercounted Tennessee’s population by about 4.78%, a failure only exceeded by the 5.04% undercount next door in Arkansas. In other words, the census likely failed to count over 300,000 Tennesseans. 

This statistical anomaly had a much bigger impact than merely postponing the announcement that Tennessee’s population had exceeded 7 million. Thanks to the undercount, Tennessee lost out on millions, if not billions, of dollars in federal funding that could help the state adjust to its expanded population.

If the undercount recurs in 2030, the difference might even be enough to cost Tennessee a tenth congressional seat. The 2030 census might seem a long way away, but the next Governor will need to hit the ground running on this issue to best protect the interests of Tennessee taxpayers.

Before discussing solutions, consider what is at stake. While the state’s leaders have admirably worked to lessen reliance on federal funding, Tennessee as a whole still receives roughly $100 billion in federal funding each year. Over 300 federal programs decide how much money to divvy up among states based on census data. States with larger populations tend to get larger portions of the pie.

The Census Bureau's errors redirected money from states like Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas, and Florida to states like Minnesota, New York, and Hawaii.These results are nearly impossible to challenge after the fact. The practical consequence within Tennessee has been a costly round of special censuses, as growing localities scrambled to recapture their share of the roughly $180 per resident the state disperses to municipalities.

Columbia spent $928,000 to net an estimated $1.28 million per year in additional state funds; White House spent over $581,000 chasing $875,000 more annually. The General Assembly mercifully addressed this issue last year by automatically updating fund distributions to reflect estimated population changes.

Nevertheless, the state has another reason why it might want to maximize turnout for the decennial census: Tennessee’s population growth gives it an outside chance of receiving a tenth congressional seat. That benefit would flow to the state as a whole, not to a particular locality. Moreover, the apportionment of congressional representation is virtually impossible to correct after the fact.

Thanks to the Census Bureau happening to undercount Texas and Florida in 2020, those states unfairly lost representation to Minnesota, Rhode Island, and California. Because the errors all happened to favor blue states at the expense of red states, that difference might be enough to swing control of the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms.

As Californians fled to Tennessee during the pandemic, Tennessee was on track to receive a tenth congressional representative via the 2030 census. Now, with its rate of population growth slowing, Tennessee looks more likely to gain a seat only in the scenario where the federal government excludes most noncitizens from the population counts used to apportion congressional districts. That would require a change in census methodology.

Currently, illegal aliens have as much of an impact on congressional apportionment as American citizens. When the first Trump Administration tried simply to ask about citizenship status on the 2020 census, Chief Justice Roberts joined four Democratic appointees to run out the clock by ruling the administrative decision-making process had been inadequate.

Republican state attorneys general are trying to force resolution of the issue well in advance of the 2030 census. A lawsuit in Louisiana’s federal court has been pending for over a year as the federal government has delayed deciding whether to oppose the states’ claims. Earlier this year, Missouri filed its own lawsuit after population estimates showed that it too would miss out on an extra congressional seat if noncitizen groups continue to distort population tallies. The Census Bureau will not be able to avoid the issue for much longer.

Last month, the bureau provided notice that it will be changing its census practice runs this year to incorporate a more detailed set of questions, including about citizenship. Thanks either to an injunction or the normal administrative process, the Census Bureau is likely going to try what it could not achieve in the first Trump Administration.

Thus, Tennessee should position itself so that the state is best able to stake its claim to a fair distribution of federal funds and apportionment of congressional representation. Some of this work can be done by the Attorney General’s Office, explaining in amicus briefs the harm to Southern states that the Census Bureau already undercounts.

But the next Governor will ultimately bear the mantle of leadership. Regardless of how litigation shakes out, the Governor can pursue public relations, administrative, and legislative strategies to maximize Tennessee’s turnout for the 2030 census.

Start with the bully pulpit of the Governor’s Office. The Governor can focus the attention of Tennesseans on a particular issue more than any other state official. To maximize this influence in a cost-efficient manner, the Governor could consider expanding programs that reward or recognize efforts to maximize responses to the decennial census.

For example, during the 2020 census, Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs increased his county’s turnout by shining the spotlight on local leaders and volunteers who organized census efforts. Knox County ended up with a 71.7% self-response rate for the census, which exceeded the state’s subpar 66% self-response rate.

States with higher response rates, such as California, encouraged local leaders to increase their turnout through friendly competitions that recognized local politicians whose cities and counties most improved their response rates. Invitations to the Governor’s Mansion and public acknowledgments of success might be all that is necessary to improve Tennessee’s performance on the 2030 census. The focus should be on measurable improvements.

In addition to such encouragement, the Governor can also provide administrative support, public education, and communication resources adaptable to the different regions of the Volunteer State. Such resources would not be expensive. However, if the General Assembly approves, the state could also arrange small grants to maximize outreach in rural and urban areas with a history of low turnout. That is a strategy states such as New York adopted as they understood the stakes of the “national competition for resources and representation.”

To the extent the General Assembly takes further legislative action in this area, the Governor should work to direct local governments’ efforts toward maximizing turnout for the decennial census itself, not on simply shuffling around state resources via special censuses.

Our state has experienced tremendous growth over the past decade. Ensuring that the 2030 census accurately counts Tennessee’s population should be a strategic emphasis for the next Governor, especially as road and water infrastructure costs rise with the state’s population. With sufficient planning and leadership, the next Governor can position the state for continued growth and influence as an example of conservative government done right.