The Fog of Growth
📉 Everything you've been told about Nashville's growth is a lie · Nashville housing assessment · D7 True Grit and Mudslinging · Week in Culture · Much more!
Good afternoon, everyone. Myths get dispelled about Nashville’s growth… And does the city need as much housing as Metro says we do? We discuss… The District 7 race is well underway… How Blackburn’s gubernatorial announcement shuffles the deck chairs… And a list of things to watch, listen to, or read.
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Everything you've been told about Nashville's growth is a lie.
From Davis Hunt
Nashville’s population growth is a mirage. All that you’ve been told for the past decade about the city’s explosive growth is couched in deceptive language that conflates the Nashville Metropolitan Statistical Area with Nashville proper, Davidson County.
Since 2016, Nashville has seen an exodus of American citizens from Davidson County. By and large, the growth that the region has experienced has occurred in the ring counties.
Since 2016, net domestic migration – which measures the number of American citizens moving in and out of a specific area – has been negative in Davidson County. During that period, the city lost 41,863 American residents.
The only saving grace has been immigration – people moving into Davidson County from other countries. Over the same period, Davidson County gained 36,070 immigrants.
Most of the growth in “Nashville” has occurred in rings like Williamson and Rutherford County, where domestic migration outpaces international migration.
For example, over the past four years, Williamson County gained 13,584 new American residents and 3,583 immigrants. Over that same four-year period, Rutherford County gained nearly 20,000 American residents and nearly 7,000 immigrants.
This pattern of growth holds true in all the ring counties that comprise the Nashville MSA.
The reliance of Nashville on international migration for growth first came to my attention through the Tennessee State Data Center at UT Knoxville in March of 2022. The data in that article goes through 2021, but the trend held into 2024.
Due to the conflation of the city and the MSA, whenever I bring this up, it’s often met with resistance because it is so contrary to what we have been told about Nashville as it has risen in the ranks of American cities. Even Tim Kuhn, Director of the TNSDC, had a hard time believing it when he consulted the data.
“On one hand, we’ve been somewhat skeptical of the trend given the large population increases that Nashville/Davidson County experienced in the last decade,” Kuhn said of the trend. “But on the other, we also see evidence of households and families forming in Davidson County and then relocating to surrounding counties within the metro area.”
The cause of this pattern is multivariate and not reducible to one factor like affordable housing – an essay for another time. But what should be starkly obvious is that Nashville, the crown jewel of one of the most prosperous and fertile regions of the country, is doing something wrong that its redder neighbors are not.
With the Trump administration cracking down on immigration, it’s an open question how that will affect the city’s growth. DAVIS HUNT
Note All of the numbers for net international and domestic migration mentioned above come from TNSDC via the US Census. You can view that info here.
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🏡 Housing Inventory Shortfall Blown Out Of Proportion? Construction optimization specialist and president of Save Our Nashville Neighborhood, Christopher Remke, published an analysis that blows the lid off of Metro’s Housing and Infrastructure Study. Remke claims the data forecast for the amount of new housing inventory needed in Nashville to keep up with growth over the next decade is off by tens of thousands of units.
You’ve probably heard the number 91,000 parroted as the housing figure Music City needs to add over the next 10 years, but Remke says the data actually shows that the city will only need about 16,000 additional units. He goes on to explain that Metro’s estimation is from a “‘stress test’ scenario based on what the city's own report calls an ‘aggressive population forecast.’”
“This figure is derived from a ten-county area and is based on total job growth, failing to account for the reality that nearly 56 percent of Nashville's workforce commutes from outside the county,” wrote Remke. “When adjusted for this realistic local demand, the figure drops dramatically, revealing the crisis is not a lack of total projected units, but a mismatch between what is built and what residents need.”
If you’re a numbers person, you can check out Remke’s full breakdown here.
🗳️ D7 True Grit & Mudslinging The 7th Congressional District campaign ads are starting to roll out, and the latest is Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight’s ad highlighting his military service. “President Trump needs reinforcements in Congress,” he says in the ad. “He needs someone he can count on, someone that’s been through the battles, someone tough, someone decisive, someone that has stared down the sights of a .50 cal and didn’t flinch.”
On the flip side, attack ads are also making the rounds. On Tuesday, the School Freedom Fund put out an ad smearing State Representative Jody Barrett’s voting record on school choice and questioning his allegiance to President Trump. They also rummaged around in the archives and dug up an alleged post where Barrett called Trump a “NY liberal d*****bag.”
The School Freedom Fund is the same pro-voucher group that spent $3.6 million to oust former Republican state senator, Frank Niceley, who recently passed away. It’s also worth noting that the group threw its weight behind State Representative and current D7 Congressional candidate Lee Reeves during last year’s Republican primaries.
As for Barrett, he polled well among his own constituents during a forum hosted by the Dickson County GOP and the VFW on Tuesday. Barrett posted the results of the straw poll this morning, which put him in a strong lead with 41 percent of the vote. The top five performers included Matt Van Epps in second with 24 percent, Stewart Parks with 16 percent, State Representative Gino Bulso with 13 percent, and Mason Foley, who wrangled up about 6 percent of the votes.
🗣️ Blackburn’s Announcement Reshuffles The Deck It’s been a frenzy since Senator Marsha Blackburn officially launched her gubernatorial campaign. Seventh Congressional District candidate Rep. Lee Reeves was ready with his endorsement as soon as the news broke yesterday morning. “I enthusiastically endorse Marsha Blackburn for Governor,” Reeves wrote in a press release. “Senator Blackburn has always been Tennessee’s conservative warrior. She is the tip of the spear in the fight against the Left in our state, fighting alongside President Donald J Trump.”
Meanwhile, Congressman Tim Burchett is jockeying for the senate appointment that’ll be available if Blackburn becomes governor. Yesterday, Burchett told Tristar Daily that he believes his congressional colleague “will make a strong governor,” and said he’d be honored to serve in the U.S. Senate if the opportunity presented itself. But Burchett might be stepping on Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs’ toes.
You may recall that Jacobs, who many anticipated would throw his own hat into the gubernatorial race, all but formally endorsed Blackburn for governor back in January. At the time, the news disappointed those who wanted to see Jacobs in Tennessee’s executive office. When taking a closer look, the change in plans hinted that he may have his eye on Blackburn’s senate seat as well. Fast-forward to yesterday’s announcement, and it looks like Jacobs may have cut a backroom deal: he will be serving as Blackburn’s campaign treasurer.
DEVELOPMENT
- West End corridor commercial building listed for $1.9M (Post)
- Green Hills commercial property listed for sale (Post)
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✹ THE WEEK IN CULTURE (August 7th)
WATCH
Hot Ticket: Freakier Friday and Weapons. The former reunites Lindsay Lohan and Jamie Lee Curtis for a nostalgic family romp 20+ years on from their last body swap. The latter finds the director of 2022’s Barbarian following up his cult hit with a smalltown horror tale of 17 disappearing children starring Josh Brolin and Julia Garner (Ozark). Both have garnered some of the year’s best reviews and calls for a mini Barbenheimer. Now playing in theaters.
Pamphleteers’s Pick: Akira Kurosawa: A Retrospective The Belcourt brings 14 films from the Japanese master back to the bigscreen. From universally beloved classics Seven Samurai, Ikiru, and Rashomon to Shakespeare adaptations Ran and Throne of Blood, it's a chance to experience some life-altering movies as they were meant to be seen.
For a complete list of upcoming titles, check out the 2025 Film Guide.
STREAM
King of the Hill (Hulu) Mike Judge’s classic 90s animated sitcom about a smalltown Texan propane salesman has gone from charming oddity to downright prophetic over the last twenty-five years. Now, it’s pulling off a MAGA Era revival like Roseanne did. And it hasn’t lost an ounce of its appeal.
The Devil and Miss Jones (Roku and Plex) Jean Arthur stars in this 1941 hidden gem about a tycoon (Charles Coburn) who goes undercover as a shoe salesman at a department store he owns when the employees threaten to strike. Ethically complicated, morally sound, and hilarious, it should have a place right next to Mr. Smith Goes to Washington in the classic Hollywood canon.
READ
Cold War Country: How Nashville's Music Row and the Pentagon Created the Sound of American Patriotism. Historian Joseph M. Thompson traces a half century of collaborations between Nashville and the military that found greats like Elvis, Roy Acuff, and Johnny Cash stoked by their dominance on Armed Forces radio and their love of the nation on the homefront.
LISTEN
Every Ghost Kelsey Waldon The Kentucky native bridges Loretta and Tammy with 21st century flyover life on this brass tacks country record, With ballads like “Comanche” and confessionals led by the gorgeous “Lost My Idlin’,” it’s the perfect antidote to the pomposity of Maren Morris and her lesser imitators.
THINGS TO DO
View our calendar for the week here.
📅 Visit our On The Radar list to find upcoming events around Nashville.
🎧 On Spotify: Pamphleteer's Picks, a playlist of our favorite bands in town this week.
👨🏻🌾 Check out our Nashville farmer's market guide.
TONIGHT
🪕 Pre-Mater Party feat. Lilly Hiatt / Tayls / Josh Black / James Holiday / Kyle Scudder / Josh Lewis @ The East Room, 8p, $19.26, Info
🪕 Bluegrass on 3rd Presents Tray Wellington @ 3rd and Lindsley, 12p, $18.58, Info
🪕 Pam Setser @ Station Inn, 9p, $20, Info
🪕 Analog Bluegrass presents Jason Carter Band @ Analog at Hutton Hotel, 8p, $15, Info
🎸 Jason Aldean @ Bridgestone Arena, 7p, $76+, Info
🪕 Vince Gill @ Ryman Auditorium, 8p, $178+, Info
🍀 Live Irish Music @ McNamara’s Irish Pub, 6p, Free, Info
🎸 Kelly’s Heroes @ Robert’s Western World, 6:30p, Free, Info
🎸 Open Mic @ Fox & Locke, 6:30p, Free, Info
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Today's newsletter is brought to you by Megan Podsiedlik (Nashville), Jerod Hollyfield (Crowd Corner), Camelia Brennan (Local Noise), and Davis Hunt (everything else).